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Trump aims to expand the U.S.-China tech gap to secure U.S. dominance.

The 2024 U.S. presidential elections have ushered in a new phase in global geopolitics, with Donald Trump securing a second term. A cornerstone of his foreign policy will be the intensification of the technological rivalry with China—a relationship already marked by escalating trade tensions, technology restrictions, and national security concerns. As the U.S. and China compete for dominance in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), 5G, and quantum computing, the next U.S. administration faces decisions on how to pressure China in this strategic competition and reshape the global technological landscape.

In his first term, Trump initiated a trade war with China, targeting telecommunications, AI, and semiconductors sectors. The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and enforced strict sanctions on Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE, cutting off their access to advanced U.S. technologies. With Trump’s re-election, this technological rivalry is likely not only to continue but also intensify. The decoupling of U.S.-China technology ecosystems may deepen, especially in sectors deemed critical for national security and future economic growth.

The Trump administration is expected to push for even greater restrictions on China’s access to advanced technologies, particularly in areas like AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing. These technologies are viewed as essential not only to economic power but also to military and geopolitical influence in the 21st century. Given China’s significant advancements in AI and 5G infrastructure, the U.S. faces increasing pressure to maintain its technological edge. Trump may adopt stricter measures, expanding the list of Chinese firms subject to sanctions and rising U.S. government control over foreign investments in critical sectors.

A strategic advantage for the U.S. in this technological rivalry lies in its global network of alliances. Trump’s second term could see a more aggressive strategy in leveraging these relationships, especially with key economic partners like Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. By building a united front, the U.S. could work to limit China’s access to critical technologies by aligning with partners on similar restrictions.

Additionally, the U.S. could collaborate with allies to establish alternative global standards for emerging technologies, countering China’s bid for technological leadership in international organizations like the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). These alliances would help prevent China from monopolizing the next generation of digital infrastructure, such as 5G, and instead promote systems that align with U.S. and allied interests regarding security, privacy, and data governance.

A central tenet of Trump’s policy toward China has been the decoupling of technology. This strategy will likely continue in his second term, particularly as the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese manufacturing for critical technologies. The pandemic and ongoing geopolitical tensions with China have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, especially regarding semiconductors, rare earth metals, and other materials essential for high-tech industries.

Trump is expected to pursue policies to reshape critical supply chains to the U.S. or relocate them to allied nations. This could involve incentivizing companies to move production out of China and into other regions, such as Southeast Asia, India, or Mexico, an action already initiated during Biden’s administration. By diversifying the global supply chain and reducing dependency on Chinese manufacturers, the U.S. would safeguard its technological infrastructure and limit China’s influence in critical industries.

Trump may further tighten export controls and investment screening processes in his second term to block Chinese access to U.S. technologies. The U.S. has already imposed export bans on key technologies, including high-performance semiconductors crucial for China’s ambitions in AI and supercomputing. Trump will likely expand these measures, targeting additional technologies and more Chinese firms seen as potential threats to U.S. national security.

The Biden administration had already moved toward stricter scrutiny of foreign direct investment (FDI) in sensitive sectors, and Trump could build on these efforts. He may leverage the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to scrutinize and potentially block Chinese investments in biotechnology, 5G infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. This would be a critical step to prevent China from accessing cutting-edge U.S. technology and intellectual property while signaling to other nations the importance of protecting sensitive technologies from Chinese control.

The rising focus on technological sovereignty, in which nations seek to control and regulate their digital ecosystems, will be a crucial component of Trump’s strategy. As the U.S. and China vie for dominance in the digital economy, there is growing momentum for nations to regulate data flows and secure their digital infrastructure from foreign influence. Trump is expected to advocate policies reinforcing the U.S.'s ability to control its technological infrastructure and data, particularly in light of China’s growing presence in global tech markets.

For instance, Trump’s administration may continue efforts to limit the influence of Chinese apps like TikTok and WeChat, citing concerns over data privacy and potential Chinese government interference. Additionally, Trump could push for greater control over internet governance, ensuring that global internet protocols align with U.S. interests and preventing China’s model of internet censorship from gaining traction globally.

The U.S. must prioritize innovation at home to maintain its lead in the global tech race. Alongside restricting China’s access to critical technologies, Trump will likely increase investments in research and development, particularly in areas like AI, quantum computing, and 6G networks. The U.S. can secure its competitive advantage and assert leadership in global technological standards by investing in next-generation technologies.

Trump’s administration may also seek to spearhead international collaborations on advanced research while opposing China’s attempts to dominate global technological norms. This could involve partnerships with other nations to establish standards for emerging technologies, ensuring that these standards reflect values like data privacy, cybersecurity, and open access.

While Trump’s approach may hinder China’s technological advancements, it also presents significant risks. Decoupling the U.S. and Chinese technologies could lead to substantial economic consequences for both countries, especially as China retaliates with its own countermeasures. Moreover, pursuing technological supremacy through sanctions and trade restrictions could disrupt global supply chains, resulting in higher costs for consumers and businesses in both nations.

The intense focus on technological competition could divert attention from other pressing global issues, such as climate change, global health, and economic inequality. The U.S. also faces diplomatic challenges from countries that rely on China for trade and investment. As this technological battle intensifies, the U.S. must carefully balance its competitive stance with diplomatic engagement to avoid alienating key allies and partners.

The 2024 U.S. presidential elections have set the stage for a new chapter in the ongoing technological rivalry with China. With Trump’s return to the White House, competition between the two global powers is expected to escalate as both vie for leadership in the next generation of technologies that will shape the global economy and security landscape.

Trump's strategy will likely prioritize technological decoupling, focusing on the high-value-added semiconductor sector, strengthening strategic alliances, and implementing strict controls to limit China’s access to critical technologies. While these policies aim to safeguard the United States' technological leadership, they carry significant risks, including economic disruptions — both globally and, notably, domestically — as well as heightened diplomatic tensions.

Image by Dan Cristian Pădureț, Pexels

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The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the institutional position of Observa China 观中国 and are the sole responsibility of the author.